At the New Statesman party last night, my colleague says: “oh look there’s Charles Clarke.” We start walking in his direction but I say I’d rather stab my own eyes than talk to Clarke. Two bemused Labour party members we pass by offer sympathetic smiles and one says, “I think there’s a lot of people here who probably feel that way.”
Two people I’ve spoken to say that David Miliband is furiously buttering up every Labour MP and party member he can find. He won’t plunge the knife in himself but he is letting everyone know that he is ready to lead if need be.
Compass Group are in high spirits. Their call for a Windfall tax got immense coverage across the media and blogosphere, and is being forced into the agenda by the party where there will be a debate – whether Gordon Brown likes it or not. Jon Cruddas MP, closely attached to Compass, has been getting favourable press and is speaking at plenty of fringe events.
Some have asked why Jon Cruddas has been sounding so overly supportive of Gordon Brown. I think this is a good decision. Many see him as the only viable left-of-centre challenger to Brown. But challenging Brown now is a poisoned chalice for Cruddas because its too early for him (and who wants to lead a party to almost certain defeat?), and its dangerous for Compass because then it will come under attack from the more Blairite faction Progress.
Progress, it is being rumoured, is trying to spearhead a decapitation of Brown. I don’t know how true this is, but its worth noting that Brown’s biggest supporting faction realises he is a liability.
Ferrets in a sack as Guido would say.
Can people talk to Charles Clarke? I thought that the only option on offer was to be talked at by Charles Clarke; or else forego that treat.
Some have asked why Jon Cruddas has been sounding so overly supportive of Gordon Brown. I think this is a good decision. Many see him as the only viable left-of-centre challenger to Brown. But challenging Brown now is a poisoned chalice for Cruddas because its too early for him (and who wants to lead a party to almost certain defeat?), and its dangerous for Compass because then it will come under attack from the more Blairite faction Progress.
It looks more like a calculation along the lines of it’s better to have a weakened PM who you can push about than a new Blairite leader who’ll you’ll have no chance of influencing…
Your point about Cruddas is well made..you’d have to be out of your mind to want to replace Brown now and this is why he will be able to limp on…Labour is pretty much ‘dammed if they do and dammed if they don’t'….
I posted a week ago why I don’t think Labour will get rid of Brown yet. Now that Miliband has so overtly identified himself as a Blairite challenger the left will rally around Brown. The trade unions do still have some influence in the party and loyalty is a very important factor in Labour psychology. Read Luke Akehurst’s blog for an insight into that.
Most of the uber-Blairites have never had proper jobs and they rose up in the party purely on the basis of patronage and sucking up to the leadership. They can’t do that any more, which makes them angry, and a lot of them are likely to lose their seats in the election, which makes them even more angry. But they are career-minded indivdualists who are not used to oppositionalism or working collectively, which is why they have been so bad at plotting against Brown. They also do not have any base in the wider party - where they are generally loathed.
Miliband could force the issue by resigning, but my guess is that he doesn’t have the guts. Brown is, however, on borrowed time and so my guess is that all the key players will just sit out the winter and ditch him in the spring. It makes sense to get rid of Brown in April/May and possibly call an election on 11 June since that will be the day of the Euro poll. If Labour does not call an election on that day it will get a massive protest vote against it, which would fatally damage a new leader. If Brown is still leader by then that could be the justification for getting rid of him.
An election is not due until 2010 and Labour still has a healthy majority. When you compare things to Major’s government or Callaghan’s things are not actually that bad.
John Denham is someone to watch, incidentally.
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