Friday’s decision by Ken Livingstone to suspend his equalities adviser Lee Jasper and invite the police to investigate the many claims made against him by the Evening Standard was a calculated gamble at the end of another awkward week for the London mayor. His and Jasper’s wish must be that the move will persuade the capital’s voters that there is nothing to hide and result in Jasper’s exoneration. Livingstone will also be hoping that some of the heat will now go out of the story and that the media will talk instead about the issues he would prefer to debate.
It may help, but Ken shouldn’t hold his breath. For one thing, summoning Plod is unlikely to prevent the Standard augmenting or reheating its attacks. For another, he has a new problem - signs that his rival candidates are gaining momentum. This is not a scientific judgement on my part: as Mike Smithson points out there have been few opinion polls on the mayoral race and the last one - which suggested Livingstone’s position had actually strengthened followed Martin Bright’s Dispatches programme - used a very small sample. It is, though, based on some close observation both of the candidates and of the press.
For the Liberal Democrats, Brian Paddick is starting to turn up the heat, as he must. A former senior Met officer, his charge that Boris Johnson is “clueless” on crime carries authority while his comment at Thursday’s environment hustings that Livingstone’s new congestion charge proposal was “playing politics with the planet” has some force. More worryingly for the Labour man, Johnson himself is looking stronger.
The latter must do two things if he’s to win on 1st May: one is to rev-up the Tory core vote, the other is to mitigate as far as possible his image as a silly ass. He’s been working hard on the former and, notwithstanding Paddick’s jibe, his manifesto on crime will look substantial and practical to many. Meanwhile, his sense of humour has won him headlines, and not only from his fans. The more he can present himself as both responsible and refreshing, the more attractively he will contrast with Livingstone, who’s been looking battle-weary and, now and then, a bit ratty recently.
People far better qualified than I think this a very tricky contest to call. My guess is that the allegations of cronyism and corruption may have the effect of hardening Livingstone’s core support just as much as they may do the same for Johnson’s. That’s not to say, though, that their effect is neutral. Sean Fear has identified a group he calls “Livingstone Conservatives” - people who vote for Tory candidates for the London Assembly, but for Livingstone for mayor. If these change their minds this time, it’s bad news for Ken. They liked him in the past because he seemed to be both capable and charming. He needs to convince them that he hasn’t changed.
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