Comments on: Casting the net - I *heart* Carnivals http://www.liberalconspiracy.org/2008/02/14/casting-the-net-i-heart-carnivals/ If there wasn't one before, it's time we started it... Wed, 07 Jan 2009 12:29:42 +0000 http://wordpress.org/?v=2.5.1 By: Jennie http://www.liberalconspiracy.org/2008/02/14/casting-the-net-i-heart-carnivals/#comment-5194 Jennie Thu, 14 Feb 2008 19:29:32 +0000 http://www.liberalconspiracy.org/2008/02/14/casting-the-net-i-heart-carnivals/#comment-5194 <3 <3

]]> By: Lee Griffin http://www.liberalconspiracy.org/2008/02/14/casting-the-net-i-heart-carnivals/#comment-5175 Lee Griffin Thu, 14 Feb 2008 13:39:14 +0000 http://www.liberalconspiracy.org/2008/02/14/casting-the-net-i-heart-carnivals/#comment-5175 It's interesting to note, talking about the Michael Tomasky article, that if Obama continues as he is with the smaller states, Hillary will lose on pledged delegates and so *should* lose the nomination. In fact Obama has already started using language that is challenging super delegates to even try to go against what the public have voted for. The fact is this, with the delegate numbers in Ohio, Texas and Pennsylvania being so high Clinton still has a chance. A very small and very slight chance. An unrealistic chance in fact. She would need to win all three of those states by at least 50 points to even slightly be in the competition for pledged delegate winner, and then she'd need to reverse the trend of losing small states to winning them by margins of at least 25 points, in states that are either already Obama favourites or have been sliding away from Hillary. In short I can't see her winning this election any more, she will likely take Ohio and Pensylvania, and probably close to draw Texas one way or another, and this will likely give her a 100 pledged delegate boost by the time the end of April rolls around. Trouble is that by that time Obama is likely to have pulled ahead by roughly 150 pledged delegates, and the next event after that is North Carolina which looks like handing him back at least half of what he loses out on in Pennsylvania. It’s interesting to note, talking about the Michael Tomasky article, that if Obama continues as he is with the smaller states, Hillary will lose on pledged delegates and so *should* lose the nomination. In fact Obama has already started using language that is challenging super delegates to even try to go against what the public have voted for.

The fact is this, with the delegate numbers in Ohio, Texas and Pennsylvania being so high Clinton still has a chance. A very small and very slight chance. An unrealistic chance in fact. She would need to win all three of those states by at least 50 points to even slightly be in the competition for pledged delegate winner, and then she’d need to reverse the trend of losing small states to winning them by margins of at least 25 points, in states that are either already Obama favourites or have been sliding away from Hillary.

In short I can’t see her winning this election any more, she will likely take Ohio and Pensylvania, and probably close to draw Texas one way or another, and this will likely give her a 100 pledged delegate boost by the time the end of April rolls around. Trouble is that by that time Obama is likely to have pulled ahead by roughly 150 pledged delegates, and the next event after that is North Carolina which looks like handing him back at least half of what he loses out on in Pennsylvania.

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