I think I’m right in saying that, assuming every non-Labour person in the Commons votes against the proposal, 34 Labour rebels are required to stop the bill. I’m guessing that the 24 members of the Campaign Group will vote against; that needs another ten rebels.

Identifying them should be relatively straightforward, so I think the issue is less how people vote as much as getting people to turn out to vote. Someone like George Galloway, who rarely votes, might actually be important in this.

xD.

Dave’s spot on - the Campaign Group will vote against en bloc leaving us to find the rest by cross-referencing the rebel votes on the earlier 90 day proposal.

Are we sure that everyone else will both turn up and vote against? While I’m sure that the Tories and Lib Dems will, does the same apply to the SDLP, UU, DUP etc?

The non Campaign Group people who voted against the 90 day proposal are:
Richard Burden; Jim Cousins; Frank Dobson; Gwyneth Dunwoody; Mark Fisher; Roger Godsiff; John Grogan; Doug Henderson; Kate Hoey; Glenda Jackson; Sian James; Sadiq Khan; Peter Kilfoyle; Mark Lazarowicz; Tony Lloyd; Andy Love; Chris McCafferty; Michael Meacher; Julie Morgan; George Mudie; Chris Mullin; Gordon Prentice; Nick Raynsford; Clare Short; Peter Soulsby; Emily Thornberry; and David Winnick

Off the top of my head, Sadiq Khan is now a Whip. Interestingly, some members of the Campaign Group didn’t vote either way (David Anderson, Frank Cook, Bill Etherington, David Hamilton and Austin Mitchell).

Perhaps emailing Frank Dobson’s office, introducing the campaign, saying LC would like like to raise awareness and needs the names of the potential ‘rebels’ to highlight, campaign to etc?

Hostility on this matter is a weak position for winning the argument.

comments like “There are still people in the party with a conscience, at least” suggests a belief that those voting for 42 days will do so for purely sinister reasons, rather than thinking it is what is right for the country.

That will turn rebels off from voting against their colleagues.

And that’s a big problem.

In Blair’s last days rebelion was safe. It would simply speed the move to a different Labour government. Under Brown at present rebellion is dangerous. It could speed the move to a Cameron led Tory government.

And these rebels are unlikely to see other Labour MPs as evil-doers. They are after all the same Labour MPs set to vote for a massive hike in wind energy.

So to make this case to the rebels the argument must be that the status quo is in Labour’s interest.

–

To do that we must stress that this issue will hurt Labour’s popularity and electoral chances. Not that labour are evil and they are saints for rebelling.

after all - they won’t see delivering power to the blues as saintly.

Good idea Leon. I’m also going to email Liberty and see if we can get something from them…

From today’s e-politix bulletin:
Parliament’s joint human rights committee publishes a report into the government’s counter-terrorism proposals, calling on ministers to withdraw plans for 42 days detention without trial. Chairman Andrew Dismore MP said: “All of the evidence we and many others have gathered points one way. There is no national consensus for extending pre-charge detention beyond 28 days. There is still no evidence that more than 28 days is likely to be necessary.”

HTML version of report: http://www.publications.parliament.uk/pa/jt200708/jtselect/jtrights/23/2302.htm

PDF: http://www.publications.parliament.uk/pa/jt200708/jtselect/jtrights/23/23.pdf